Rant: North Dakota is not "The Midwest"

Gus on Netflix's Love, played by Paul Rust.

In season 1 of Netflix's Love, we the audience are introduced to the dorky and awkward Gus.  The character introduces himself as being from "The Midwest" then goes on to explain how he grew up in the Dakotas where people are friendlier.  Gus is a textbook fish out of water in the Los Angeles area as he's from the Midwest.  Or is he? 

As shown below, North nor South Dakota are in The Midwest.  They are Plains States.  Come on Hollywood, not everything between the Rockies and the Atlantic is The Midwest.

Axle's Regions of the Lower 48 United States Map

-Axle

Time Machine: 1988 Indiana State Police Mustangs

20 new 1988 Mustang 5.0s delivered to the Indiana State Police in 1988

The year is 1988, the date is June 30th.  Summer time.  The Indiana State Police just unleashed 20 high performance mustangs on the crossroads of America to catch speeders.  Source: 1988: Indiana State Police launch high-performance vehicle fleet with Ford Mustang

Just how high performance were these five-oh edition 5.0L mustangs?  Well, in order to answer that let's take a look at the modern day 2018 Mustang equipped with the same (yet very different) 5.0L V8 engine.

At $13,119 a piece, or roughly $28,572 in 2018 dollars

The 1988 Mustang equipped with a 5.0L high output engine, had an MSRP of $13,119 in 1988 dollars.  In 2018 dollars, adjusted for inflation, that is equivalent to $28,572.  Whereas the brandy new 2018 Mustang, similarly equipped with a 5.0L motor has an MSRP of $36,090.  So in today's dollars, the 1988 Mustang is a bargain, almost $8k less expensive.

460 Horsepower for $36,090.  A bargain?

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see what would happen if that $13,119 MSRP in 1988 was instead invested into the stock market in the S&P500 and let to ride out for 30 years.  Well, it looks like the stock market was the better investment.  Your $13,119 in 1988 would have turned into $133,026.70 today, of about 3 (three) 2018 5.0L Mustangs.  Woof.

Instead of buying a 5.0L Mustang in 1988, invest the $13,119 MSRP into the S&P500 and turn it into $133,026.70

Okay, okay.  So buying a sports car is technically a waste of money, but accelerating to 60 MPH in under 4 seconds is actually bad ass.  How did that 1988 'Stang fare when it came to performance specifications like 0-60 times (which you shouldn't quote), 1/4 mile times and traps, and top speed?  See below. 

'88 Mustang 5.0L vs. '18 Mustang 5.0L, who wins?

The 1988 Mustang 5.0 is slow, painfully slow.  Hardly adequate at pulling over horse and buggies in Amish country, maybe.  It takes 10 seconds to get to 60, and is only traveling at 85 MPH at the end of the quarter mile.  The '18 Mustang could sit at the starting line for almost 4 full seconds and still chase down the '88 Mustang on the big end.  That's painful.

The 2018 Mustang has more weight, but a lot more win

The 2018 Mustang has over double the horsepower, 120 more ft-lbs of torque, and hits 60 MPH in under 4 seconds.  So which is the smart choice?  Simple, I've outlined the correct steps to follow below:

• Travel to 1988 with $13,119
• Don't buy a 1988 Mustang 5.0L
• Invest money in S&P500
• Wait 30 years
• $$$

-Axle

U-Haul Sucks

U-Haul Sucks, But Where Else Can You Go?

It was moving time for me and I needed a truck.  U-Haul sucks, but where else could I go?

Penske

Penske - Doesn't Suck

My usual go-to.  What Penske has that U-Haul doesn't:

• Calling the phone number online will get you directly to the dude working the counter
• Trucks are nicer
• Booking is easier, they don't try to up-sell you
• It's ran like a well oiled machine.  Like anything Old Man Penske put his hands on.

Unfortunately, my branch closed for renovations and the nearest available location was 40 miles away

Budget

Budget - Doesn't Suck Either

The backup plan.  What does Budget do well that U-Haul doesn't:

• Lower Prices
• Funny signs - The Budget Truck rental on Grand River northwest of Detroit had a permanent sign out front that said "Trucks across the street are more expensive"  
• What was across the street?  U-Haul.  Gotta love it

My local branch was all sold out.  Gah.


U-Haul

U-Haul Sucks

What U-Haul does that the other guys don't:

• Calling the number of your local store puts you through to a call center, where a dude unaffiliated with your local (often franchised) branch books or changes reservations that the local branch then un-reserves or changes again
• Make promises they can't enforce remotely from the call center
• Sell you a truck rental that you don't actually have
• Try to up-sell you with every sentence

So I talk to Uhaul Call Center Dude (UCCD) and get my truck all booked.  No, I don't want tape.  No boxes please.  No, I'm sure I don't want boxes.  No, I don't need a dolly.  No, I don't want tie straps.  No, no, no.  Just let me book a truck dammit.

The U.C.C.D.s

Okay UCCD says, "you'll get a call at 6PM tomorrow confirming your reservation for the day after."  That's weird, why do I need a confirmation call for something that UCCD says is already booked?  UCCD says it's just standard practice.  Okay, weird.

U-Haul didn't follow through.  I received a text message at 8AM from U-Haul confirming my reservation... the location changed, the time changed.  Am I still getting a phone call?  I called up the new U-Haul location and was put through to a call center, this time a different UCCD was there to help.

U-Haul - Sorry dude, you ain't getting a truck!

- Axle

Autonomous Cars - The Death of the Car Guy

Bob Lutz of Chrysler & GM Leadership Fame - "It's all over for [car] brands and driving pleasure."

 I attended Bob Lutz's Keynote Address at the 2018 SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) World Congress on April 11, 2018.  Bob Lutz has marketed himself as a Car Guy in recent books, interviews and self-written articles in Road & Track magazine, and from what I saw I believe him.  Mr. Lutz prefaced his speech by saying he didn't want to depress the young engineers in the room, but that in the future the era of "downshifting into the passing lane and throttling past traffic is coming to an end," and that, "soon autonomous cars will be mandated and human-driven vehicles will be outlawed... perhaps first in urban areas, then eventually into the suburbs and finally in rural America too."  I'm paraphrasing from my notes here, but the gist was that a depressing, boring future is coming.  No more human-driven cars allowed, with manual shifting and right-foot-driven high horsepower machines being corralled into private tracks.  Screw that.

In a future era of self-driving cars, human-driven cars will be outlawed.  No more granny shifting or double clutching.

Is it possible that human-driven cars will be outright banned in the future?  I think so, but maybe not for the obvious reason of improved safety but rather something more sinister.  Trolling.  Humans will inevitably troll autonomously driven cars or game the system to speed up commute times by weaving in and out of traffic - think: brake checking autonomously driven cars to force them to a stop or causing an autonomous car to drive off the road.  There's really no way to stop this from happening, other than banning human-driven cars.

"Are they [autonomous cars] going to be fun? Absolutely not." - Bob Lutz.  But maybe less scary than whatever that Ford Escape is doing above.

 Then there's the fuel savings or "green" benefit of a platoon of autonomously driven cars following in a sort of road-train down the highway to save energy.  Perhaps energy-progressive states like California or traffic-conscious metropolis areas like Boston-NYC-Philadelphia will mandate autonomy to be green and/or ease congestion.  Whatever the scenario, there's a time or fuel savings to autonomous cars, which means money.  Money is a great motivator for innovation and laws alike.

"Platooning, autonomous cars in right lane only" will eventually turn into all lanes only, and forever.

So maybe mandated autonomous driving is a ways off, but what has the trend been?  Smaller engines, but bigger cars.  Less manual transmissions, more boring CVTs (continuously variable transmissions).  Fun and funky popup headlights gave way for whatever the hell the Nissan Juke's pedestrian crash-safety-approved front end is.  Efficiency, economy, the nanny state saying you can't do that.  In the words of Bob Lutz, "Do you really care who (what company) made the subway car you're on?" - The future is a sea of beige autonomous pods on wheels.

The modern Model T?  You can have any autonomous pod car you want, as long as it's beige

So where does that leave us, the car guys?  Somewhere in the Cretaceous Period with 'ol T-Rex I reckon.  Until then, drive on.

-- Axle

4 Words of Wisdom for Newly Minted Engineers

1. First day, understand your boss's expectations

It's your first day of your first real job, nervous excitement is in the air.  What is it going to be like, as a real engineer?  Maybe you're in orientation today and just received your badge with ten other people of all ages and backgrounds.  Perhaps it's a smaller company with no real orientation and you're sitting at your desk anticipating what comes next.  Either way this piece of advice holds true:  After greeting your boss on the first day, in your first one-on-one meeting the first question ought to be "What are your expectations of me?"

Two people who understood their boss's ever-changing expectations

It's a question that is so crucial, "What are your expectations of me?" but more often than not it doesn't even get discussed unless you (the new gal/guy) brings it up.  Whatever words follow in answer to that question are paramount, and should be your principles when doing work.  Your boss hired you to make themselves look good.  Didn't they?  Your job is to: i) not add to Friday evening stress your boss started with on Monday, and ii) manage and meet their expectations.  A key part of that is under-selling and over-delivering.

Under-selling, what's that mean?  If there's a task given to you and you can knock it out in an hour, don't say that.  Bad engineer, bad!  Over-promising like that is dangerous, what if the work is more involved that you expected?  What if the test you were supposed to do goes wrong, or the equipment is booked solid for the day - that's egg on your face because now the boss is expecting results.  Over-promising gets you nowhere fast and nothing but trouble.  Instead, under-sell.  State that the one hour task will be done by the end of the day, or the two day task will be done at the end of the week.

Under-selling sets you up for success and allows you to then over-deliver by exceeding the expectations that you just set when the two day task that was promised in a week gets done in just two days.  Way to go.  You look good, your boss looks good.

2. Regular meetings on performance, ask for the feedback or you won't get it

You can't know what you don't ask.  Don't wait until your end of year review to find out that you've been lacking in key development areas.  Not every boss has their employee's development on their mind, but most will help out if asked.  If you wait until the yearly merit-review time to get your performance feedback, chances are it isn't going to be good!  You want that big raise and bonus, don't you?  Understand your boss's expectations, and get regular feedback on your performance and where you need to improve.  Use phrases like "what areas could I be spending more effort on?" and then do it!  This serves the benefit of helping you improve as an engineer, but also sets the expectation in your boss's mind that you give a damn and can only help you out at the yearly merit-review.

3. Find a mentor outside of your department

This is so crucial.  Find a wise, gray beard that you don't work directly with or for and introduce yourself then ask for a chance to meet and pick their brain and get some mentoring.  Gray beards usually love doing this stuff!  Passing on knowledge and lessons learned is fun.  Choosing a mentor outside of your department matters because you're going to have a chance to get into deep discussions about the different personalities and challenges of the people you work with - and getting advice from a direct manager or senior colleague is a conflict of interest.  You don't want to appear as griping to your direct manager about the job you're doing.

Spot the gray beard, Who would you go to for mentoring?

If the first meeting with the gray beard goes well, ask them if it's cool to setup another appointment.  Maybe every 3 weeks or once a month.  Something semi-regular without being a burden.  After all, they're a gray beard and have a packed schedule.

4. Have a 5 year plan, and an escape plan

Where do you want to be in 5 years?  Do you know?  If not, don't worry but it's something you've got to figure out and soon.  Without a plan, you're floating, adrift at sea to some unknown destination.  Not good.  So figure it out, do you want to be in the same company but a different role - or would you rather be some place else - write it down and make educated choices to get closer to that end goal.

Engineering, no one breaks out alive

Finally, have an escape plan.  I worked in the automotive industry during The Great Recession (TM).  Layoffs came fast and and they came furious.  At some companies, like Chrysler, employees showed up to work on Monday to find a box and a note at their desk.  Effectively, pack your shit and security is walking you out at noon.  Ouch.  Others, worse, were perp-walked like in Law & Order mid-day to the exit where they were stripped of their company badge and told to come back later for their stuff.  What's your exit strategy if you were laid off tomorrow?  Build a savings and keep it.  Most financial advisors will tell you an 8 month emergency fund at minimum, where you could maintain your current lifestyle for 8 months with no pay.  I know that sounds crazy, but it's attainable with an engineering salary and a low-cost lifestyle.

--Axle

Volkswagen Diesel Dreams, Up in Smoke

My Joan Jetta, Diesel Dream or Pipe Dream?

I bought my Volkswagen TDI on September 11, 2010.  She was a sparkly silver, with a six-speed-manual gearbox and 236 ft-lbs of torque.  Four doors, three pedals, two headlights and one dream - to be thermodynamically superior to every car on the road.  It was the holy grail, a low emitting vehicle with 44MPG highway (actual results averaged closer to 50MPG), and no lithium ion or nickel-metal hydride battery pack.  No open pit heavy metal mines here.

Battery Manufacturing, Not Something You Want Next Door

The promise was simple.  A car that did it all.  Faster and cooler than a Prius but just as good for the environment.  Better for the environment when the hybrid battery manufacturing process is taken into consideration.  This car did it, and admirably.  I once traveled from Detroit, MI to Valparaiso, IN to Indianapolis, IN and back to Detroit, MI on a single tank of diesel.  That's right, 683 miles on a single tank of fuel.  Incredible!  I was in love with Joan.  That was her, Joan Jetta.  I drove Joan across the country, north, south, east, west, and quickly racked up 24,000 miles a year - it was a blast.

683 Miles on a Single Tank of Fuel!

Then things started to fall apart.  The complicated diesel exhaust aftertreatment system began showing some troubling signs at 40,000 miles.  An electro-actuated backpressure valve in the exhaust, meant to ramp up exhaust backpressure to create high exhaust temperatures and allow for diesel particulate filter (DPF) regeneration stuck open, and I was past the 36,000 mile bumper-to-bumper powertrain warranty.  Whammy!  This meant that the DPF didn't regen when driving around town, which ultimately would have clogged the DPF with a thousand dollar price tag to replace.

An Electro-actuated Valve Exposed to Salt and Water Failed, Who Figured?

I called up VW of North America, "Yes sir, sorry sir, the 80,000 mile exhaust coverage only covers catalytic converters and mufflers.  What's that?  There is no catalytic converter on this car because it's a diesel?  Yeah, we know that.  Sorry!"  There goes a few hundred on a electro-actuated valve.  Another twenty thousand miles later, and it happened again.  Apparently placing an e-valve into the hellish environment of 800F exhaust with road salt is a bad idea.  Go figure.

The Backpressure E-Valve Comes Out, Again...

Eventually VW issued a recall on this electro-actuated valve, but only after I had already paid to replace one and rebuilt the second.  Gee, thanks.  Then the electro-actuated valve in the intake stuck open, meaning cold starts were awful.  Again, a few hundred dollars to replace it.

At 95,000 miles a turbo failure.  A bushing behind the compressor wheel gave up the ghost, split in half, and decided it wanted to burst free and take out the compressor spinning upwards of 100,000 RPM with it.  $1,200 for a new turbo and learning that the turbo comes out from underneath the car behind the engine later, she was back up and running.  That turbo shouldn't have failed in that manner, so soon.

Turbo Failure at 95,000 Miles

New Turbo, Old Turbo

Show it Who is in Charge - Mount it to a Board

So two electro-actuated exhaust valve failures, an intake electro-actuated valve failure, and a turbo failure.... and then, Diesel Gate: September 2015.

Diesel Gate - 47x Allowable NOx

As it turns out, my VW TDI had been equipped with a defeat device.  Meaning that the car's engine controller knew when it was being tested for emissions on a dyno and it switched to a low emitting (and low power) calibration to pass the test.  This left me, the driver, unwittingly pumping out the deadly NOx of 47 diesel engines, from one car.  NOx is a molecule, Nitric Oxide, it can be in a few varities, NO, NO2, and NO3.  All of these things can kill you in concentrations as low as 100 PPM, but prolonged exposure to even lower concentrations scars lung tissue, causes pulmonary health issues, and is responsible for asthma in children.  It's bad stuff.  Not only that, NOx reacts with light (photons) to create smog and ozone, again more nasty stuff.  NOx is the gift from hell that keeps on giving.

Smog - Primarily Produced by NOx - Thanks VW!

As of February 1, 2018 Joan is sitting in the driveway accumulating value as the VW buyback allows her to be worth more if not driven every subsequent 1st of the month, until the end of the buyback period in November 2018.

It's not that I miss her, it's that I miss what she could have been.

 -Axle


**Update Mar 3, 2018**

The starter failed. I pulled the starter to get it check out at AutoZone and yeah, it's dead.  A buddy helped push start the car, and I drove it back to my local VW dealer for the buyback.  Kept her running the whole time during the appointment.  I'm imagining they were pretty surprised when they tried to start the car again after I left, probably even more so when they popped the hood and found there wasn't even a starter in it.  So long, Joan Jetta. 

That's all, folks.

Why bitcoin is not yet a currency

Bit Coin: Not yet a currency

Merriam Webster defines currency as: 

a : something (such as coins, treasury notes, and banknotes) that is in circulation as a medium of exchange

b : paper money in circulation

c : a common article for bartering

-- furs were once used as a currency

d : a medium of verbal or intellectual expression 

In order for something to be considered a medium of exchange, it must be liquid.  Meaning, I could take this something and immediately turn it into another good or service - like a dollar. I could take a dollar and immediately turn it into say, Michelin Pilot Sport Cup tires for a Mitsubishi 3000GT VR-4.

Dollars --> Michelin Pilot Sport Cup Tires

But I can't exchange Bit Coin for racing tires, and neither can you.  In order to do this, the Bit Coin must first be exchanged for dollars (like via the coin exchange coinbase.com) and then the dollars are used to buy tires.  That extra step in between means that Bit Coin is not liquid, it is semi-liquid - like owning shares of Ford Motor Company.

FoMoCo Shares - A Semi-Liquid Asset

I could take shares of FoMoCo, sell them on an exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange, for dollars then buy those racing tires.  A lot like Bit Coin and the exchange Coinbase.  But then there is another factor, exchange volatility.  Shares in FoMoCo are volatile, yes, if I bought a share at $12.60 at the beginning of January, I could sell it for $13.20 today.  Woohoo!

Or worse, if I sold a share of FoMoCo at the beginning of January to buy tires - I just lost 4.762% and perhaps I should have held onto that FoMoCo share for another week.  But how could I have known the future value?  I can't.  It's a risk.  

With Bit Coin, the volatility is even worse, and it's why you can't go down to Tire Barn and exchange your Bit Coin directly for Michelin tires.  If I exchanged my bit coin for cash on January 1st, I'd take a 17.17% loss (read: kick to the nuts) relative to the value a week later.  No business in their right mind would deal in such a volatile currency.  At that rate, we may as well be exchanging shares of FoMoCo instead of Bit Coin.

Bit Coin:  Too Volatile Too Furious

"But Axle," you say, "Company XYZ accepts Bit Coin!"  You're right, they do - on some limited basis, with the intent of getting free advertisement for their company when the tech blogs post about it because it's the flavor of the week.  One company accepting the imaginary coins does not make it a currency.

Bit Coin: Too Volatile to be a Currency

So what did we learn?  A currency must be liquid, it must be stable in value, and it must be capable of being readily exchanged for goods and services.  Bit Coin is none of these things.  But hey, what do I know?  Want to buy some Tulips?  I hear there is a finite quantity of them in circulation in a given season and demand can only go up!

If you think Bit Coin is a currency, I've got some tulips to sell you

- Axle