Autonomous Cars - The Death of the Car Guy

Bob Lutz of Chrysler & GM Leadership Fame - "It's all over for [car] brands and driving pleasure."

 I attended Bob Lutz's Keynote Address at the 2018 SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) World Congress on April 11, 2018.  Bob Lutz has marketed himself as a Car Guy in recent books, interviews and self-written articles in Road & Track magazine, and from what I saw I believe him.  Mr. Lutz prefaced his speech by saying he didn't want to depress the young engineers in the room, but that in the future the era of "downshifting into the passing lane and throttling past traffic is coming to an end," and that, "soon autonomous cars will be mandated and human-driven vehicles will be outlawed... perhaps first in urban areas, then eventually into the suburbs and finally in rural America too."  I'm paraphrasing from my notes here, but the gist was that a depressing, boring future is coming.  No more human-driven cars allowed, with manual shifting and right-foot-driven high horsepower machines being corralled into private tracks.  Screw that.

In a future era of self-driving cars, human-driven cars will be outlawed.  No more granny shifting or double clutching.

Is it possible that human-driven cars will be outright banned in the future?  I think so, but maybe not for the obvious reason of improved safety but rather something more sinister.  Trolling.  Humans will inevitably troll autonomously driven cars or game the system to speed up commute times by weaving in and out of traffic - think: brake checking autonomously driven cars to force them to a stop or causing an autonomous car to drive off the road.  There's really no way to stop this from happening, other than banning human-driven cars.

"Are they [autonomous cars] going to be fun? Absolutely not." - Bob Lutz.  But maybe less scary than whatever that Ford Escape is doing above.

 Then there's the fuel savings or "green" benefit of a platoon of autonomously driven cars following in a sort of road-train down the highway to save energy.  Perhaps energy-progressive states like California or traffic-conscious metropolis areas like Boston-NYC-Philadelphia will mandate autonomy to be green and/or ease congestion.  Whatever the scenario, there's a time or fuel savings to autonomous cars, which means money.  Money is a great motivator for innovation and laws alike.

"Platooning, autonomous cars in right lane only" will eventually turn into all lanes only, and forever.

So maybe mandated autonomous driving is a ways off, but what has the trend been?  Smaller engines, but bigger cars.  Less manual transmissions, more boring CVTs (continuously variable transmissions).  Fun and funky popup headlights gave way for whatever the hell the Nissan Juke's pedestrian crash-safety-approved front end is.  Efficiency, economy, the nanny state saying you can't do that.  In the words of Bob Lutz, "Do you really care who (what company) made the subway car you're on?" - The future is a sea of beige autonomous pods on wheels.

The modern Model T?  You can have any autonomous pod car you want, as long as it's beige

So where does that leave us, the car guys?  Somewhere in the Cretaceous Period with 'ol T-Rex I reckon.  Until then, drive on.

-- Axle

4 Words of Wisdom for Newly Minted Engineers

1. First day, understand your boss's expectations

It's your first day of your first real job, nervous excitement is in the air.  What is it going to be like, as a real engineer?  Maybe you're in orientation today and just received your badge with ten other people of all ages and backgrounds.  Perhaps it's a smaller company with no real orientation and you're sitting at your desk anticipating what comes next.  Either way this piece of advice holds true:  After greeting your boss on the first day, in your first one-on-one meeting the first question ought to be "What are your expectations of me?"

Two people who understood their boss's ever-changing expectations

It's a question that is so crucial, "What are your expectations of me?" but more often than not it doesn't even get discussed unless you (the new gal/guy) brings it up.  Whatever words follow in answer to that question are paramount, and should be your principles when doing work.  Your boss hired you to make themselves look good.  Didn't they?  Your job is to: i) not add to Friday evening stress your boss started with on Monday, and ii) manage and meet their expectations.  A key part of that is under-selling and over-delivering.

Under-selling, what's that mean?  If there's a task given to you and you can knock it out in an hour, don't say that.  Bad engineer, bad!  Over-promising like that is dangerous, what if the work is more involved that you expected?  What if the test you were supposed to do goes wrong, or the equipment is booked solid for the day - that's egg on your face because now the boss is expecting results.  Over-promising gets you nowhere fast and nothing but trouble.  Instead, under-sell.  State that the one hour task will be done by the end of the day, or the two day task will be done at the end of the week.

Under-selling sets you up for success and allows you to then over-deliver by exceeding the expectations that you just set when the two day task that was promised in a week gets done in just two days.  Way to go.  You look good, your boss looks good.

2. Regular meetings on performance, ask for the feedback or you won't get it

You can't know what you don't ask.  Don't wait until your end of year review to find out that you've been lacking in key development areas.  Not every boss has their employee's development on their mind, but most will help out if asked.  If you wait until the yearly merit-review time to get your performance feedback, chances are it isn't going to be good!  You want that big raise and bonus, don't you?  Understand your boss's expectations, and get regular feedback on your performance and where you need to improve.  Use phrases like "what areas could I be spending more effort on?" and then do it!  This serves the benefit of helping you improve as an engineer, but also sets the expectation in your boss's mind that you give a damn and can only help you out at the yearly merit-review.

3. Find a mentor outside of your department

This is so crucial.  Find a wise, gray beard that you don't work directly with or for and introduce yourself then ask for a chance to meet and pick their brain and get some mentoring.  Gray beards usually love doing this stuff!  Passing on knowledge and lessons learned is fun.  Choosing a mentor outside of your department matters because you're going to have a chance to get into deep discussions about the different personalities and challenges of the people you work with - and getting advice from a direct manager or senior colleague is a conflict of interest.  You don't want to appear as griping to your direct manager about the job you're doing.

Spot the gray beard, Who would you go to for mentoring?

If the first meeting with the gray beard goes well, ask them if it's cool to setup another appointment.  Maybe every 3 weeks or once a month.  Something semi-regular without being a burden.  After all, they're a gray beard and have a packed schedule.

4. Have a 5 year plan, and an escape plan

Where do you want to be in 5 years?  Do you know?  If not, don't worry but it's something you've got to figure out and soon.  Without a plan, you're floating, adrift at sea to some unknown destination.  Not good.  So figure it out, do you want to be in the same company but a different role - or would you rather be some place else - write it down and make educated choices to get closer to that end goal.

Engineering, no one breaks out alive

Finally, have an escape plan.  I worked in the automotive industry during The Great Recession (TM).  Layoffs came fast and and they came furious.  At some companies, like Chrysler, employees showed up to work on Monday to find a box and a note at their desk.  Effectively, pack your shit and security is walking you out at noon.  Ouch.  Others, worse, were perp-walked like in Law & Order mid-day to the exit where they were stripped of their company badge and told to come back later for their stuff.  What's your exit strategy if you were laid off tomorrow?  Build a savings and keep it.  Most financial advisors will tell you an 8 month emergency fund at minimum, where you could maintain your current lifestyle for 8 months with no pay.  I know that sounds crazy, but it's attainable with an engineering salary and a low-cost lifestyle.

--Axle